A Theory of Change

Ever wonder how your programme, project or initiative contributes to student outcomes? A Theory of Change sets out HOW and WHY a desired change is expected to come about. It is a roadmap to help you get from here to where you want to go.

What is a Theory of Change?

A Theory of Change sets out HOW and WHY a desired change is expected to come about. It is a roadmap to help you get from here to where you want to go. It sets out why a planned activity will lead to an intended result and explain the underlying rationale. It checks on the match between the strategies you are using and the goals you want to achieve.

Watch our video animation explaining what a Theory of Change is. We will also help you create one using the Logic Model app when you are starting a project, programme or any initiative.

What is a Theory of Change?

A Theory of Change sets out HOW and WHY a desired change is expected to come about. It checks on the match between the strategies you are using and the goals you want to achieve. It provides a clear and testable explanation to convincingly show your plan is a really good workable solution.

Theory of Change is also known as Intervention Logic, Outcomes Framework, Programme Theory, Programme Logic and Benefits Mapping. The visual representation of the Theory of Change is called a logic map, logic frame or a logic model. A Logic model is a graphic illustration or a roadmap that gets you from here to where you want to go, it sets out the logical steps of what you plan to do, in simple terms, to reach a goal.

A TOC goes further by explaining the connections and assumptions sitting behind the logic model.

Why use a Theory of Change?

A Theory of Change leads to better programme design and therefore improves the likelihood of its success. A good Theory of Change helps show how change actually happens in practical terms. When the precise link between activities and the achievement of the long-term goals is well described you are able to reassure and show others why this plan should work. They also lead to better evaluation. A TOC helps identify your indicators and measures when you are planning an evaluation.

A Theory of Change is useful for:

  • Refining and enhancing the effectiveness of a project
  • Communicating what a project does and its impact in a clear and convincing way
  • A first step in designing an effective evaluation

There is no one single way to create a Theory of Change it looks different depending on the needs of the stakeholders. It is very important that your Theory of Change links into your organisation’s overall strategic objectives and vision.

Theory of Change FAQs

A printable copy of the above FAQs to help with your planning.

Examples

There is no one single way to create a Theory of Change; it looks different depending on the needs of the stakeholders. It is very important that your Theory of Change links into your organisation’s overall strategic objectives and vision.

Here are some examples of how it is applied on Ministry initiatives.

Principal Recruitment Allowance

The Principal Recruitment Allowance is made available to Boards of Trustees that face significant challenges and have a principal vacancy.

 

The Theory of Change was developed with key stakeholders from the Ministry of Education, Education Review Office, NZ Schools Trustees Association and the National Allocation Panel.

Reading Recovery

Reading Recovery is a literacy support programme.

 

The intervention logic was created post implementation using existing documentation and workshops with Ministry staff knowledgeable about the programme.